Lebanon Ceasefire Holds, Hormuz Still Blocked: Trump Claims Deal Is 'Very Close'

On day 49 of the US-Israel conflict with Iran, the situation remains suspended between two contradictory dynamics: a fragile truce in Lebanon that has reopened diplomatic hopes, and an ongoing American maritime blockade that continues to strangle Iran’s economy while threatening global energy supplies.

Israel–Lebanon Ceasefire: Ten Days to Negotiate Peace

At midnight local time on April 17, a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon officially took effect. Residents celebrated the truce by firing into the air, and displaced families began returning to southern Lebanon and Beirut’s southern suburbs. Lebanon’s death toll stood at 2,196 at the time of signing, according to the National News Agency.

The truce was brokered on the sidelines of the Antalya Diplomacy Forum, where Pakistan brought together foreign ministers from Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and potentially Egypt. Washington confirmed that the ceasefire opens a ten-day window for direct negotiations between Israeli and Lebanese diplomats — the first of their kind since 1993.

Hezbollah welcomed the truce with “caution and vigilance,” according to an official quoted by Al Jazeera. The Shiite movement remains wary of conditions imposed by Israel, which intends to maintain a “security strip” in southern Lebanon during the negotiation period.

Hormuz Blockade: ‘As Long as It Takes’

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to commercial shipping. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth was unequivocal on Thursday: the blockade of Iranian ports will continue “as long as it takes.” He added that Washington remained “locked and loaded” to resume strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure.

General Brad Cooper, commander of US forces in the region, specified that more than 10,000 sailors, marines, and airmen, along with over a dozen ships and dozens of aircraft, are carrying out the blockade. Thirteen ships departing Iranian ports turned back after US military warnings.

The economic consequences are mounting: the Strait of Hormuz normally carries 20% of global oil and LNG. Europe now has roughly six weeks of jet fuel remaining before a potential aviation fuel shortage. In response, French and British leaders convened an emergency videoconference bringing together 40 countries to coordinate efforts to reopen the waterway.

Paradoxically, oil was trading below $95 per barrel, a signal that markets are still betting on a rapid resolution.

Trump: ‘A Deal Very Close’

Donald Trump made a series of optimistic statements Thursday, telling Fox News that the war with Iran was “almost over” and that a deal was “very close.” He suggested talks could resume in Islamabad as early as this weekend, with Pakistani mediation.

Yet the diplomatic reality is more nuanced. A first round of negotiations led by Vice President J.D. Vance took place in Pakistan last week without reaching an agreement. Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry confirmed that both sides are in discussions to organize a second round, but no date has been set.

The ceasefire agreed on April 8 is expected to hold through early next week, maintaining pressure on negotiators to make progress.

Civil Society: Repression Accelerated Under Cover of War

While diplomacy dominates the headlines, the regime is intensifying domestic repression. On April 14, four protesters were sentenced to death for “cooperation with the United States and hostile groups.”

Between March 30 and April 9, ten political prisoners were executed at Qezel Hesar Prison, including six members of the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI/MEK) and four detainees arrested during the January 2026 uprising. The cumulative toll for 2025-2026 now exceeds 2,600 executions, according to Iran News Update.

April 14 marked the 116th consecutive week of the “No to Executions Tuesdays” campaign: hunger strikes were held in at least 56 prisons across the country.

The 2025-2026 uprisings — triggered in late December by the collapse of the rial and soaring inflation — have mobilized more than 200 cities and represent the largest protest movement since the 1979 revolution. Over the past year, at least 27,752 people have been arrested, the vast majority for political reasons. Shortages of essential medicines — insulin, blood thinners — are worsening, compounded by sanctions and business closures.

Geopolitical Context: A Decisive Week

The dynamics of the week of April 17 outline an unprecedented configuration: a partial ceasefire on the Lebanese front, a total blockade on the maritime front, and nuclear-diplomatic negotiations whose outcome remains open.

Three scenarios are taking shape for the coming days:

Scenario 1 — Deal in Islamabad: A second round of negotiations produces a framework agreement on Iran’s nuclear program, in exchange for a partial lifting of the blockade. Oil markets rebound.

Scenario 2 — Prolonged status quo: Negotiations drag on, the blockade holds, and economic pressure on both Iran and Europe intensifies. Risk of aviation fuel crisis in 4-6 weeks.

Scenario 3 — Escalation: Diplomatic failure, resumption of strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure, and Tehran definitively closes Hormuz. Oil breaks through $120.

Key Takeaways

Israel–Lebanon ceasefire of 10 days in effect since April 17 — 2,196 Lebanese deaths in the conflict
US blockade still active: 10,000+ military personnel, 13 ships forced to turn back
Trump claims deal ‘very close’; 2nd negotiation round expected in Islamabad
Europe under pressure: six weeks of jet fuel left if Hormuz stays blocked
Domestic repression: 2,600+ executions, 10 political prisoners killed in 10 days, 4 new death sentences
116th week of hunger strikes in 56 Iranian prisons